There's been quite a turnaround over at intrade.com, in the last week or so. An interesting question: what part of these prices is a risk premium, and what is the sign of that premium? At least the sign part is straightforward: if the "marginal investor" is a Republican, then the price of McCain is lower, and the price of Obama higher, than their respective probabilities of winning the race.
The price of "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee", which stood at 18 on September 3, is now down to 6.
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